Island Republic｜島嶼共和國

Prison Planet上面有一篇文章，在談中國利用手上的美元存底威脅美國的可能性。標題文字還蠻驚竦的，叫「中國的哀的美敦書：讓我們侵略台灣，否則我們就傾倒美元」。這個議題是經濟安全的範疇，在國際政治經濟學上面，其實也是一個重要的課題。已經辭世的著名英國左派政治經濟學者史蘭琪（Susan Strange，奇怪小姐 :P）的大作《賭場資本主義》（Casino Capitalism），對於國際結構下資本家擁有的權力摃桿有很深刻的反思，尤其是過去一百年中，金融資本跨國流動的情形與日俱進，使得金融操作變成金融炒作。在二十世紀中，由先進資本主義國家–如英法，到新興市場–如墨馬，幾乎無有悻免於難。這使得我們反思亞洲金融危機時，提供了一個新視點，亦即金融管制與金融自由化，才是金融安全最大的關鍵。新興金融市場在擁抱外來金源時，如果不慎，恐怕陷入韋德（Robert Wade）對於「全球化」的嚴厲批判，使 Global Liberation 成為「美國財政部–華爾街複合體」（The U.S. Treasury-Wall Street Complex）擴張全球金融資本的霸權擴張之舉。

此一觀點似乎言之成理，不過退一步想，有沒有疑點？《囚獄星球》上的這篇文章的論點，雖有流為「恐共文宣」之嫌疑，但不是全無論點：

China's Ultimatum: Let Us Invade Taiwan Or We'll Dump The Dollar
Financial analyst says China could use huge dollar reserves as blackmail for beefing superpower status

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Wednesday, September 19, 2007


Naïve Americans who think they live in a free society should watch this video filmed by students at a John Kerry speech September 17, Constitution Day, at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

China holds $1.3 trillion of dollar denominated assets and leading Communist Party officials have repeatedly threatened to use what the London Telegraph referred to as "the nuclear option," the liquidation of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation, the result of which would be an almost certain and immediate collapse of the dollar.

But according to Greg Zanetti of the Financial Network, an advisor for the McDonalds franchise, China may also be using economic threats as a means of greasing the skids for the unopposed invasion of Taiwan. "So what is the end game?" writes Zanetti. "Well, there is now conjecture that China may willingly take the huge financial hit from the falling dollar… provided we don’t interfere with their claims to Taiwan."

"Their argument would be they acquired Hong Kong peacefully and that the envelopment of Taiwan would just be the finale of a 70 year civil war."
"Their gamble would be that Americans would not fall on their swords for Taiwan. Of course, if we agree to such a deal we have (for all intents and purposes) ceded regional hegemony to China. They would be considered the Asian power and we would begin our retreat as a global power."

Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is mandated to provide support to Taiwan in the event of any hostile trade embargoes or military invasion on behalf of China.

The fact that the U.S. government, with the help of Alan Greenspan, have done their utmost to bring about a slow-paced economic meltdown by continually bad-mouthing the dollar suggests they would want to avoid the rapid decline that would be triggered if the Chinese were to dump their assets.

Though public sentiment in China and the majority of analysts think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely, any warming of relations between Taiwan and the U.S. is usually subject to vocal rebuke.

Earlier this year, Chinese government leaders threatened to plan new war games and heighten military readiness in anticipation of any attempt by the U.S. to defend Taiwan should a Chinese invasion occur, or simply if Taiwan declares its independence, after President Bush shook hands with Taiwan's representative to the United States, Joseph Wu.